In some ways Hamas is like Japan in World War II, e.g:
Deliberately disbursing military infrastructure amongst civilian infrastructure.
Using human shields.
Using suicide (kamikaze) attacks.
Deliberately murdering, capturing, and torturing innocent civilians contrary to the laws of war.
Fanatical and unlikely to surrender before they are completely defeated.
Hamas went way too far on Oct 7th. They have pushed Israel over the edge. Whether one likes that or not, whether Hamas wanted that outcome or not, the die is cast. I think Hamas, and Gaza, will now suffer a similar fate as Japan in WW II.
I do not mean Gaza will suffer strategic firebombing or nuclear bombing as Japan did. Neither of those is necessary or effective in this case, and no one (including the Israel Defense Forces) desires it.
Israel could certainly do it if they wanted to - flatten Gaza in a couple of days. But they won’t.
Like Japan, the longer Hamas keeps fighting, the more damage will be inflicted on their infrastructure. Including, unfortunately, civilian infrastructure. The more they use human shields, the more Palestinian civilians will die.
Also like Japan, Hamas will be forced to accept unconditional surrender (or something close). Better, some other more reasonable coalition will take over from Hamas and get to surrender on more favorable terms.
But rest assured:
At the end of this war Hamas will be gone from Gaza. Or at least disarmed and removed from authority.
There will be a new Gazan government, with a real constitution.
“Kill all the Jews from the river to the sea, and then everywhere else” and similar genocidal nonsense will be completely absent from the new government’s charter.
The current Hamas “leadership” - billionaires living luxuriously in guarded palaces in other countries far from Gaza - will mostly be rounded up, with their stolen assets (that were supposed to provide for the Gazan civilians) seized.
War criminals (from top to bottom) will be fairly prosecuted and punished by open international tribunals. Everyone will see what they did.
Israel - perhaps with neutral international participation - will take over all external security for Gaza. For probably about 20 years.
During those 20 years, Gaza will be rebuilt. By Israel. And one would hope with help from rich Arab countries and the West.
This is basically what happened with Japan (and Germany) after WWII. I think it worked out pretty well.
Thoughtful analogy, thanks.